MISSOULA ―
Cities across Montana will experience slow growth for the next few years while the state recovers from the worst recession since the 1980s, according to University of Montana economist Patrick Barkey.
“Montana did not sit on the sidelines during this recession ― it has impacted almost every corner of the state,” said Barkey, director of UM’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research. “Healthy recovery in the state economy will be slow to get out of the gate and will not produce significant job growth until 2011.”
Barkey and Paul Polzin, director emeritus of BBER, will outline the state’s economic forecast at the bureau’s annual Economic Outlook Seminars, to be held in nine cities throughout Montana.
Barkey and other economists from the Montana University System will examine local, state and national economic trends throughout the series of seminars.
In addition to economic forecasts, this year’s seminars also will examine the different outlooks for men and women workers during the economic recovery, with a presentation by Wendy Stock, chair of Montana State University’s Department of Economics and Agricultural Economics.
The seminar series begins in Missoula on Friday, Jan. 22, at the Hilton Garden Inn. Other seminars are scheduled as follows:
- Helena – Jan. 26, Best Western Great Northern
- Great Falls – Jan. 27, Hilton Garden Inn
- Billings – Feb. 2, MSU-Billings, Student Union Ballroom
- Bozeman – Feb. 3, Best Western GranTree Inn
- Butte – Feb. 4, Holiday Inn Express
- Kalispell – Feb. 12, Hilton Garden Inn
- Lewistown – March 16, Central Montana Education Center
- Havre – March 17, MSU-Northern, Hensler Auditorium
Barkey said state government in particular will face fiscal challenges throughout the biennium, as reflected in recent reports showing Montana’s declines in total state tax collections in the third quarter of 2009, which ranked worse than all but three other states.
The recent closure of the Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. mill near Missoula, along with several large retail store closures, represents another challenge to short-term growth.
“The recession impacts are greater in western Montana,” Polzin said. “The recession came early and will linger longest in Missoula, while the Flathead is definitely the state’s recession epicenter.”
However, Barkey does see some signs of improvement for Montana’s economy in 2010. Stability in housing, consumer spending and natural resource industries signifies modest growth, and signs of recovery in Asia also bode well for Montana’s natural resource industry.
For more information or to register for a seminar, call 406-243-5113 or visit the BBER Web site at http://www.bber.umt.edu.
###
JE/als
Local, dailies
011910econ