UM Poll: Montanans Mixed on Impeachment, Economy, Elected Officials

October 07, 2019

MISSOULA – The University of Montana Big Sky Poll recently polled 303 registered Montana voters and discovered they have mixed views about the impeachment of President Donald Trump, the economy and the job performance of elected officials.

When asked, “Do you think that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office?” 52% of respondents answered no, 39% responded yes, and 10% responded that they did not know.

The poll asked Montanans,In your view, is the economy improving, staying the same or getting worse?” Forty-two percent of respondents said the economy was improving, 31% said it was staying the same, and 27% said it was getting worse.

In a series of questions, Montanans rated the job performance of their elected officials from excellent to poor, with the results in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Elected Official Job Performance


Participants were asked to pick their preferred candidate, if the presidential election were held today, in a series of head-to-head match-ups. Results are listed in Table 2 below. 

Table 2: Presidential Candidates: Head-to-Head Match Ups

When asked, “If the election for Montana’s U.S. Senate seat was held today, which of the following potential candidates would you vote for?” 64% of respondents selected the incumbent Steve Daines (R), and 18% selected Jack Ballard (D).

When asked if the election were held today for Montana’s U.S. House Representative seat election, 36% of respondents selected Kathleen Williams (D), 35% selected Matt Rosendale (R), and 20% selected Corey Stapleton (R).

When asked if the election were held today for Montana’s governor, 35% selected Greg Gianforte (R), 23% selected Mike Cooney (D), 16% selected Tim Fox (R), and 8% selected Whitney Williams (D).

The UM Big Sky Poll online survey was conducted Sept. 26 through Oct., 3 with 303 registered Montana voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.63 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.

The poll is directed by UM Associate Professor Sara Rinfret, chair of the Department of Public Administration and Policy, and UM marketing Associate Professor Justin Angle in conjunction with four graduate students from UM’s public administration and business analytics programs.

The survey was commissioned with support from UM’s Office of Research and Creative Scholarship, Blewett School of Law’s Baucus Institute and the Social Science Research Laboratory. The Big Sky Poll is conducted on an ongoing basis with its next iteration planned for spring 2020.

Use of poll findings require attribution to UM Big Sky Poll. Full results from the poll are available on the UM Big Sky Poll website at http://umt.edu/bigskypoll.

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Table 1: Elected Officials Approval Ratings

 

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Pres. Donald Trump

30%

17%

12%

42%

Sen. Jon Tester

22%

27%

30%

21%

Sen. Steve Daines

11%

36%

32%

21%

Rep. Greg Gianforte

12%

25%

28%

35%

U.S. Congress

1%

17%

32%

50%

Gov. Steve Bullock

18%

32%

24%

26%

MT State Legislature

5%

40%

46%

9%

 

Table 2: President Trump Approval Ratings by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Excellent

26.3%

33.8%

27.3%

33.3%

-

58.8%

22.1%

Good

16.4%

16.9%

12.3%

23.1%

1.3%

23.7%

17.9%

Fair

12.3%

11.5%

12.8%

11.1%

9.0%

9.6%

16.8%

Poor

45.0%

37.7%

47.6%

32.5%

89.7%

7.9%

43.2%

 

Table 2 Cont’d., Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bachelor’s Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Excellent

40.0%

35.4%

25.6%

33.7%

16.4%

-

Good

20.0%

15.2%

25.6%

18.6%

7.5%

33.3%

Fair

13.3%

13.9%

10.3%

12.8%

10.4%

33.3%

Poor

26.7%

35.4%

38.5%

34.9%

65.7%

33.3%

 

Table 3: Sen. Tester Approval Ratings by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Excellent

25.1%

19.1%

23.0%

21.4%

59.0%

4.4%

15.5%

Good

25.1%

28.2%

28.3%

23.9%

26.9%

18.4%

32.0%

Fair

29.8%

30.5%

30.5%

29.9%

11.5%

42.1%

30.9%

Poor

19.9%

22.1%

18.2%

24.8%

2.6%

35.1%

21.6%

 

Table 3 Cont’d., Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bachelor’s Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Excellent

19.4%

19.2%

5.3%

19.8%

40.3%

33.3%

Good

16.1%

28.2%

34.2%

20.9%

31.3%

33.3%

Fair

38.7%

32.1%

39.5%

32.6%

16.4%

-

Poor

25.8%

20.5%

22.1%

26.7%

11.9%

33.3%

 

Table 4: Sen. Daines Approval Ratings by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Excellent

10.5%

11.5%

8.6%

14.5%

2.6%

21.9%

6.3%

Good

33.3%

40.8%

33.7%

40.2%

23.1%

40.4%

43.8%

Fair

33.9%

29.2%

34.2%

28.2%

32.1%

28.1%

36.5%

Poor

22.2%

18.5%

23.5%

17.1%

42.3%

9.6%

13.5%

 

Table 4 Cont’d., Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bachelor’s Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Excellent

6.7%

10.3%

7.9%

16.3%

7.6%

-

Good

40.0%

35.9%

39.5%

36.0%

33.3%

66.7%

Fair

30.0%

33.3%

31.6%

29.1%

34.8%

33.3%

Poor

23.3%

20.5%

21.1%

18.6%

24.2%

-

 

Table 5: Rep. Gianforte Approval Ratings by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Excellent

9.9%

15.3%

10.2%

15.5%

2.6%

24.8%

7.3%

Good

24.6%

26.0%

21.4%

30.2%

6.5%

33.6%

29.2%

Fair

28.1%

26.7%

28.3%

26.7%

22.1%

34.5%

26.0%

Poor

37.4%

32.1%

40.1%

27.6%

68.8%

7.1%

37.5%

 

Table 5 Cont’d., Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bachelor’s Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Excellent

6.5%

15.4%

5.0%

15.3%

12.1%

-

Good

35.5%

23.1%

27.5%

31.8%

12.1%

-

Fair

29.0%

32.1%

32.5%

27.1%

22.7%

-

Poor

29.0%

29.5%

35.0%

25.9%

53.0%

100%

 

Table 6: U.S. Congress Approval Ratings by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Excellent

1.2%

0.8%

0.5%

1.7%

-

2.7%

-

Good

20.0%

12.3%

17.2%

16.2%

24.4%

11.5%

14.6%

Fair

37.6%

25.4%

31.2%

33.3%

47.4%

26.5%

29.2%

Poor

41.2%

61.5%

51.1%

48.7%

28.2%

59.3%

56.3%

 

Table 6 Cont’d., Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bachelor’s Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Excellent

-

2.5%

-

1.2%

-

-

Good

23.3%

25.3%

23.7%

11.8%

7.6%

-

Fair

26.7%

31.6%

23.7%

35.3%

36.4%

33.3%

Poor

50.0%

40.5%

52.6%

51.8%

56.2%

66.7%

 

Table 7: Gov. Bullock Approval Ratings by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Excellent

21.2%

13.7%

16.6%

19.7%

41.0%

5.3%

15.6%

Good

36.5%

26.7%

32.6%

31.6%

46.2%

23.9%

31.3%

Fair

22.9%

26.0%

26.7%

20.5%

10.3%

31.0%

26.0%

Poor

19.4%

33.6%

24.1%

28.2%

2.6%

39.8%

27.1%

 

Table 7 Cont’d., Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bachelor’s Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Excellent

22.6%

19.2%

5.1%

17.6%

22.1%

33.3%

Good

19.4%

32.1%

38.5%

25.9%

41.2%

33.3%

Fair

29.0%

26.9%

23.1%

28.2%

16.2%

-

Poor

29.0%

21.8%

33.3%

28.2%

20.6%

33.3%

 

Table 8: Montana Legislature Approval Ratings by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Excellent

4.1%

6.9%

4.8%

6.0%

7.7%

1.8%

7.3%

Good

44.7%

33.6%

37.1%

43.6%

46.2%

38.1%

38.5%

Fair

44.1%

47.3%

48.9%

41.0%

37.2%

54.0%

42.7%

Poor

7.1%

12.2%

9.1%

9.4%

9.0%

6.2%

11.5%

 

Table 8 Cont’d., Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bachelor’s Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Excellent

6.7%

6.4%

2.6%

4.7%

4.5%

-

Good

30.0%

43.6%

44.7%

37.6%

42.4%

33.3%

Fair

50.0%

41.0%

44.7%

51.8%

42.4%

33.3%

Poor

13.3%

9.0%

7.9%

5.9%

10.6%

33.3%

 

Table 9: If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

U.S. President (asked as head-to-head match ups)

 

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Donald Trump

48.5%

60.3%

48.1%

62.1%

1.3%

89.4%

56.3%

Joe Biden

51.5%

39.7%

51.9%

37.9%

98.7%

10.6%

43.8%

 

Table 9 Cont’d., Trump vs. Biden by Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bach. Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Donald Trump

63.3%

59.0%

57.9%

61.2%

32.8%

33.3%

Joe Biden

36.7%

41.0%

42.1%

38.8%

67.2%

66.7%

 

Table 9 Cont’d., Trump vs. Warren by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Donald Trump

49.7%

60.3%

49.2%

62.9%

1.3%

94.7%

51.5%

Elizabeth Warren

50.3%

39.7%

50.8%

37.1%

98.7%

5.3%

48.5%

 

Table 9 Cont’d., Trump vs. Warren by Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bach. Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Donald Trump

66.7%

53.8%

59.0%

62.4%

37.9%

33.3%

Elizabeth Warren

33.3%

46.2%

41.0%

37.6%

62.1%

66.7%

 

Table 9 Cont’d., Trump vs. Sanders by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Donald Trump

49.4%

61.1%

49.7%

61.2%

1.3%

92.9%

52.1%

Bernie Sanders

50.6%

38.9%

50.3%

38.8%

98.7%

7.1%

47.9%

 

Table 9 Cont’d., Trump vs. Sanders by Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bach. Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Donald Trump

60.0%

57.7%

57.9%

63.5%

34.8%

-

Bernie Sanders

40.0%

42.3%

42.1%

36.5%

65.2%

100%

 

Table 9 Cont’d., Trump vs. Harris by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Donald Trump

50.6%

61.4%

50.0%

63.2%

2.6%

92.9%

55.2%

Kamala Harris

49.4%

38.6%

50.0%

36.8%

97.4%

7.1%

44.8%

 

Table 9 Cont’d., Trump vs. Harris by Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bach. Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Donald Trump

70.0%

57.7%

59.0%

64.0%

32.8%

33.3%

Kamala Harris

30.0%

42.3%

41.0%

36.0%

67.2%

66.7%

 

Table 9 Cont’d., Trump vs. Bullock by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Donald Trump

46.8%

50.0%

42.5%

56.9%

-

89.4%

40.6%

Steve Bullock

53.2%

50.0%

57.5%

43.1%

100%

10.6%

59.4%

 

Table 9 Cont’d., Trump vs. Bullock by Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bach. Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Donald Trump

60.0%

52.6%

55.3%

53.5%

27.3%

33.3%

Steve Bullock

40.0%

47.4%

44.7%

46.5%

72.7%

66.7%


 

Table 10: If the Election Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?

 

U.S. Senate

 

Answer

Percentage

Steve Daines

64%

Jack Ballard

18%

Wilmot Collins

9%

John Mues

9%

 

Table 10 Cont’d., U.S. Senate by Demographic

 

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Steve Daines

59.1%

71.0%

59.4%

70.7%

36.8%

82.3%

68.8%

Jack Ballard

21.1%

14.5%

18.2%

18.1%

23.7%

13.3%

17.7%

Wilmot Collins

10.5%

6.9%

12.8%

4.3%

22.4%

0.9%

8.3%

John Mues

9.4%

7.6%

9.6%

6.9%

17.1%

3.5%

5.2%

 

Table 10 Cont’d., U.S. Senate by Education Level

 

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc.

Bach.

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Steve Daines

67.7%

59.7%

73.7%

68.2%

58.2%

33.3%

Jack Ballard

22.6%

23.4%

15.8%

17.6%

13.4%

-

Wilmot Collins

3.2%

9.1%

7.9%

4.7%

16.4%

33.3%

John Mues

6.5%

7.8%

2.6%

9.4%

11.9%

33.3%

 

Table 11: If the Election Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?

 

U.S. Representative

Answer

Percentage

Kathleen Williams

36%

Matt Rosendale

35%

Corey Stapleton

20%

Joe Dooling

3%

Matt Rains

2%

Tom Winter

2%

Timothy Johnson

2%

 

Table 11 Cont’d., U.S. Representative by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Kathleen Williams

40.9%

29.0%

40.6%

28.2%

82.1%

4.4%

34.4%

Matt Rosendale

36.8%

33.6%

28.3%

46.2%

6.4%

61.9%

30.2%

Corey Stapleton

15.2%

26.0%

21.4%

17.1%

3.8%

23.0%

29.2%

Joe Dooling

1.8%

3.8%

2.7%

2.6%

1.3%

3.5%

3.1%

Matt Rains

1.8%

3.1%

2.7%

2.6%

1.3%

3.5%

1.0%

Tom Winter

1.8%

3.1%

2.1%

2.6%

5.1%

-

1.0%

Timothy Johnson

1.8%

1.5%

2.1%

0.9%

-

3.5%

1.0%

 

Table 11 Cont’d., U.S. Representative by Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc.

Bach.

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Kathleen Williams

26.7%

33.3%

36.8%

26.2%

53.0%

66.7%

Matt Rosendale

40.0%

47.4%

47.4%

36.9%

15.2%

-

Corey Stapleton

20.0%

11.5%

15.8%

27.4%

22.7%

33.3%

Joe Dooling

3.3%

2.6%

2.6%

2.4%

1.5%

-

Matt Rains

6.7%

3.8%

-

2.4%

-

-

Tom Winter

3.3%

1.3%

-

2.4%

3.0%

-

Timothy Johnson

-

-

-

2.4%

4.5%

-

 

Table 12: If the Election Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?

 

Montana Governor

Answer

Percentage

Greg Gianforte

35%

Mike Cooney

23%

Tim Fox

16%

Whitney Williams

8%

Albert Olszewski

8%

Casey Schreiner

6%

Reilly Neill

3%

Gary Perry

<1%

 

Table 12 Cont’d., Montana Governor by Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Greg Gianforte

32.6%

38.5%

34.8%

36.2%

10.5%

56.6%

35.7%

Mike Cooney

23.8%

21.5%

26.7%

17.2%

52.6%

9.7%

13.3%

Tim Fox

14.5%

18.5%

12.3%

21.6%

10.5%

16.8%

18.4%

Whitney Williams

9.9%

5.4%

7.5%

8.6%

7.9%

3.5%

12.2%

Albert Olszewski

7.0%

10.0%

7.5%

9.5%

3.9%

8.8%

9.2%

Casey Schreiner

7.6%

3.8%

8.0%

2.6%

10.5%

1.8%

7.1%

Reilly Neill

4.1%

1.5%

2.1%

4.3%

3.9%

1.8%

4.1%

Gary Perry

0.6%

0.8%

1.1%

-

-

0.9%

-

 

Table 12 Cont’d., Montana Governor by Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc.

Bach.

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Greg Gianforte

46.7%

38.5%

40%

37.2%

22.4%

-

Mike Cooney

16.7%

17.9%

10%

20.9%

37.3%

66.7%

Tim Fox

13.3%

14.1%

10%

23.3%

14.9%

-

Whitney Williams

3.3%

10.3%

12.5%

4.7%

10.4%

-

Albert Olszewski

6.7%

7.7%

12.5%

8.1%

7.5%

-

Casey Schreiner

6.7%

9%

10%

3.5%

3%

-

Reilly Neill

6.7%

2.6%

2.5%

2.3%

3%

33.3%

Gary Perry

-

-

2.5%

-

1.5%

-

 

Table 13: In Your View, is the Economy Improving, Staying the Same, or Getting Worse?

Answer

Percentage

Improving

42%

Staying the same

31%

Getting worse

27%

 

Table 13 Cont’d., Demographic

 

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

Improving

35.3%

50.0%

40.1%

44.0%

12.8%

68.4%

37.1%

Staying the same

30.0%

33.3%

30.5%

32.8%

34.6%

23.7%

35.1%

Getting worse

34.7%

16.7%

29.4%

23.3%

52.6%

7.9%

27.8%

 

Table 13 Cont’d., Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bach. Degree

Post-Bac. (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

Improving

48.4%

46.2%

36.8%

44.7%

32.8%

33.3%

Staying the same

29.0%

30.8%

28.9%

31.8%

32.8%

33.3%

Getting worse

22.6%

23.1%

34.2%

23.5%

34.3%

33.3%

 

Table 14: Do You Think That President Trump Should be Impeached and Removed from Office?

Answer

Percentage

No

52%

Yes

39%

Don’t Know

10%

 

Table 14 Cont’d., Demographic

 

Women

Men

Urban

Rural

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

No

47.1%

58.8%

45.5%

62.1%

2.6%

90.4%

47.9%

Yes

41.2%

34.4%

43.3%

31.0%

85.7%

7.9%

35.4%

Don’t Know

11.8%

6.9%

11.2%

6.9%

11.7%

1.8%

16.7%


Table 14 Cont’d., Education Level

 

High School/

GED

Some College

Assoc. Degree

Bach. Degree

Post-Bac (Ph.D., J.D., etc.)

Other

No

60.0%

56.4%

61.5%

58.1%

31.3%

33.3%

Yes

26.7%

32.1%

33.3%

30.2%

62.7%

66.7%

Don’t Know

13.3%

11.5%

5.1%

11.6%

6.0%

-

Contact: Sara Rinfret, associate professor and chair, UM Department of Public Administration and Policy, 406-243-4702, sara.rinfret@umontana.edu.